In recent times, I heard a lot of podcasts, videos, talks and so on which offered a relatively positive, hope-making analysis and, of course, opinions. At the forefront of them is – unavoidable – Mark Reicher. That guy tries to find out positive elements in really impossible situations. Therefore, I drop many of his overly enthuastic statements and assessments. Nevertheless, he stays optimistically in any case, and therefore, I estimate his analysis, even though I take them not for granted, but as having a well-founded background,
And very often, I found other analysts who came to similar conclusions and confirmed his reports, but in any case, they were not overstated. They remain attentive, looking more for deviating and contradictory reports. Now I am observing that several analysts tend to explain much more positive aspects of the situation. The most surprising consequences of Trump’s politics – not supporting Ukraine with weapons and money anymore – were leading now to consequences nobody thought of. For Ukraine there does not now exist restrictions on attacking deep into Russia itself anymore. This was forbidden to avoid escalation with the help of the West, of the Western weapons.
The Ukrainians have increased their own weapon production, not only in quantity, but even more in quality: longer range of drones and missiles, improving their accuracy. This has led to destruction oil processing and oil delivery facilities. Everything depends on the ability to attack in this way constantly such that the reconstruction of the equipment is much more difficult and sometimes not even manageable because of sanctions which forbid the trade parts for war or dual use.