After the Russians began their full-scale invasion of Ukraine, German and other Western politicians insisted on calling it Putin’s war. This slogan was obviously created to prevent Russians as a whole from being held responsible and to avoid a new hatred between peoples. As the war continued, however, we had to notice that an overwhelming majority of Russians seemed to stand behind Putin. Addressing the whole responsibility to one single person could no longer be considered pertinent. Putin is only the tip of the iceberg. He has a broad base – with some exceptions – the Russian people want their old glory, their old empire back. If not up to the Elbe, then at least up to the Oder.
When Trump appeared on the stage for the second time, and the first erratic actions took place —especially the cruel attacks against Ukraine and its president, and against Europe as well — we initially thought this was mainly Trump, Vance, and a few others. We believed we could handle this with intelligent politics, or perhaps even with an overwhelming adoration of the Big Boss. But after reading the new National Security Strategy, it became clear that it is not Trump, not Trump alone. There is a powerful movement inside the establishment, inside the now leading elite.
So what do they want?
I believe that first and foremost they want to push back Europe — not only Europe’s liberal values, but also its economic power, the economic power Europe has today and may have in the future. There may be ideologists involved; these are the useful idiots. In reality, however, there is an elite that thinks in categories of economic and geopolitical power.
What do they want? What could it be? (I want to be more careful here, because this is the core of my writing.)
First, a summary of what has been suspected all over the globe about Trump’s real intentions. Some of these suspicions are the following:
First, Trump is an idiot and does not even know himself what he wants.
Second, Trump wants money, and with that money more power, in order to pay his private debts.
Third, Trump wants peace so as not to be disturbed in his business.
Fourth, Trump wants support from Russia in his struggle with China.
Fifth, Trump wants to push back China’s claim to become a world power equal to or stronger than the United States.
There are more, which I do not remember at the moment.
All of these assumptions share the same basic attitude: Trump wants something. He has a strategic intention, and the general goal is to make America great for all time. Maybe that is his real intention. Maybe it is also the intention of the elite behind him. But the crucial question is: what is the real path this elite wants to take to achieve this goal?
Let us ask why he and his circle are offering Ukraine to Putin —forcing Ukrainians to give up not only occupied territory, but also military power and, in the end, their sovereignty. The Americans know — and here I start speaking of Americans, not of Trump alone — that European countries, at least the most important ones, cannot live next to a Russia empowered by victory and highly ambitious to restore its old empire.
On this path, it seems unavoidable that Europe will drift into a war with Russia. And that, I suspect, is exactly the point the Americans have been aiming for. They would then have a reason to attack or contain Russia, to surround Russia, and at the same time to “rescue” Europe once again. Russia would be on the ground. Europe would be on the ground. America, in possession of Europe’s and Russia’s assets, would then be the only power left to confront China.
From there, the following could happen: America and China might divide the world peacefully between them—or one of them might go one step further and risk everything. Why America should long for such a goal, I do not know. But I do know that this is basically the direction in which dictatorships tend to move.