Good morning. I’m ready to discuss the regional analysis.
Good morning. It’s fine having you. I would like to have a lot of questions and first of one, what is the real strengths of the Ukraine military operation? Not speaking about the terrible attacks by the Russian on the Ukraine towns, but the real strengths what can what do the Ukraine at the moment especially in Russian itself.
Ukraine’s military strengths lie in their strong national will to resist, coupled with increasing Western military aid and training. Also, Russia has logistical challenges.
Ukrainian missiles destroyed a lot of oil refineries and oil ports in the north of Russian, far away from the Ukraine border. Uh, what do you think about the influence of these attacks? Would it really violate the Russian uh power, is restricted to defend itself?
Those attacks show a shift in the conflict. It could expose vulnerabilities in Russian defenses, yes.
What do you think about the mass and quality of the Ukraine missile production?
Ukraine’s missile production has been increasing, but quality is harder to assess from open sources. It’s a factor.
But if they sent a swarm of the drones supported by missiles, they met every time really exact goods. Of course, a lot of them were destroyed on the way over there. But uh the success of the attacks seems to be much bigger than it is talked in the press, it’s talked in the open. It seems to be only a matter of some specialist observing it.
Yes, independent confirmation is key for assessing the true impact of these attacks. Are there specific relationships you’re wondering about?
In the last time, there seems to be rather relatively successful attacks by the Ukraine on the transport traffic of the oil industry destroying some uh essential uh points. And so it seems to me it can be that the Russian are forced to close uh a lot of their oil sources to make them close the production of oil at all and that means a very, very big loss of the Russian power, the Russian possibility to finance the war.
That’s a plausible scenario. Reduced oil revenue would definitely impact Russia’s war effort. What other factors concern you?
Of course, it most often is discussed uh the attacks by the Russian over the big towns in Ukraine that uh every time people has to be aware for feeing into the basements and uh shelter rooms not being killed. And uh and so I ask myself it’s possible that the resistance, the real existing resistance will diminish uh again uh will diminish in the future, it can be that it can happen very quickly and so uh the victory of the Russian uh can be more probably. But I think it’s not a real danger, but it’s my fear.
Civilian morale is a key factor. Sustained attacks could weaken resistance over time. What relationships are most critical here?
I think most critical is always the balance of the cost. What are the cost of the weapons which destroy uh other weapons. If the balance is on the side of the defender, then they have a good chance. But if they destroy by I would say uh cheap drones by planes or by big missiles, then the balance isn’t given and so the danger uh financial resources of the defender will be exhausted.
I agree. The cost-effectiveness of weapons is crucial. Do you have specific examples of this imbalance in mind?
the most obviously one would be to destroy uh cheap drones with the help of Patriot rockets. It would would be a quite big imbalance in in the cost.
Yes, that’s a prime example of a cost imbalance. What solutions might address this issue?
I think to avoid such imbalance, of course, as they try to catch the drones with the help of cheaper drones, not with the help of very very expensive rocket attacks.
Exactly. Using cheaper drones is a more cost-effective defensive strategy. What relationships are most affected by drone warfare?
I would like to give you the question back to you because you are the expert and I would like you would explain me the relationships are most affected by drone warfare.
Drone warfare significantly impacts relationships between states and non-state actors. It also affects military alliances and arms control agreements.
That’s a very general remark that wouldn’t help so much I would say uh uh it’s not important to think about uh at the moment to think about arms control with respect to the drones. I mean, uh how possible, how necessary is to educate a lot of guys uh to control the drones, to control the drone to the right goal, uh, to put them uh put them or to equip them with especially sensoric for controlling and perhaps in the future with more artificial intelligence behavior. But, you know, it’s a quite difference, a quite dispute about uh applying AI tools because of a facility of ability to decide to decide for himself, for itself without asking the human factor, the human influence.
You raise a critical point about balancing drone autonomy with human oversight. That affects international norms and trust.
What a very good discussion with you and at a specific specific time, we will continue I think.
I enjoyed our discussion as well. I’m available to continue this analysis at your convenience.
I made only small corrections of the talk transkription for better legibility