Thinking about a complex problem in a language which you don’t fully understand, you are not able to command the language as well as necessary for solving such a problem.
What is this problem? How is it possible that the most powerful, allegedly most powerful man of the world, of course, Donald Trump is meant, sent it least qualified envoys to conduct the most difficult negotiations in the world, sends him to Russia and Geneva for solving the almost unsolvable Ukraine and Iran problems. What can be the reason for such a blunder?
The simplest answer is, Trump isn’t interested in solving these world-moving problems. Let’s aside the thought that Trump is so silly, so intellectual incapable, that he only takes these guys because of he trust them. I think this explanation of the choice cannot be satisfying. So, I come back to the first solution: he is not interested in solving the problem, and, giving such an answer, the next question follows: why isn’t he interested in solving the problem. So, we can explore several branches of the problem, but it’s too complicated for me to pursue it in every direction.
I want to look only for one branch, the branch which says: if I have enough trouble created in the world, it would be nearly impossible to replace me at the end of my term in office. That’s one branch which is not improbable. I said it’s only possible to think about one branch, but this first branch looks relatively primitive. Just a test, a trial to pick up a solution for this problem. So, I think, it’s not satisfying for myself, and I must look for at least a second branch, which could explain it.
What can be a second branch. He wants to have Russia as an ally against China. He wants to give Russia everything it wants, perhaps as far as the Oder River, I would say, or even more, I don’t know. And therefore, he has a dependable ally in his struggle with China. But why he should struggle with China? Because of China’s overwhelming economic power? But China’s economic power isn’t as overwhelming as it seems. The steadily increasing military power is another problem. And I think all the lines of possible acting are running into a kind of war. I’m not sure what kind of war will take place in the next years, months, or decades. That’s too difficult to guess it. We have seen the war in Ukraine, the character of the war changed dramatically from a tank occupation war to a drone and rocket war. You see, I am over-demanded to image myself the war of the future.
I’m totally afraid of any kind of war. But nevertheless, all my thinking comes to the conclusion that a war will eventually unavoidable, if we go towards in this direction given by Trump and others, .
Next time I have to think along another branch, with a more optimistic end. But I am afraid to force myself in such a direction can lead to a confused, over-artificial deduction, and nobody will be convinced by it. I will take one or two days and I will start the next deductive thinking about the consequences of the policy by the American president and his friendly partners, like Putin and Xi.